A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of New Hampshire has highlighted the importance of rural votes in determining the outcome of presidential elections. Co-authored by Kenneth Johnson and UNH Professor Dante Scala, the study focused on the impact of a 3% shift in rural votes in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The results showed that such a small change could significantly sway the election results in favor of either party.
Johnson emphasized the significance of not ignoring rural America, as even though it represents a smaller portion of the vote, it can still play a crucial role in determining the outcome of elections. The research team analyzed rural voter behavior in presidential elections from 2008 to 2020 and modeled the potential impact of a 3% shift in votes in the 2024 election.
The findings also showed that President Joe Biden performed better in swing states in the 2020 election compared to former President Donald Trump in 2016. Johnson pointed out that while rural and urban voters are often seen as different demographics, their voting patterns can vary significantly across different regions.
In conclusion, Johnson emphasized the importance of courting rural voters, noting that even though they may not make up the majority of the electorate, their votes can still make a significant impact on the election results. The study sheds light on the need for political campaigns to focus on appealing to rural voters in order to secure victory in presidential elections.
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